Unilever als overname kandidaat
Als de handel wat rustiger is – en deze week met Hemelvaart en de Londense
Bank holiday kunnen we daar wel van spreken – krijgen geruchten meer kans.
Wie die geruchten bedenkt, geen idee. “According to sources” is snel
geschreven. Zo ook vanochtend: “Unilever
up on £38bn bid talk – For years it was considered by many fund managers to
be a sleeping giant or just plain boring, but yesterday consumer goods
behemoth Unilever was in good demand. It attracted buyers and rose 31p to
1971p amid wild rumours from across the pond that Procter & Gamble could be
lining up a mega £38bn or £30 a share break-up bid for one of its biggest
rivals. As sceptics quickly said that anti-trust authorities would not take
kindly to such a deal, they heard whispers that P&G has apparently already
lined up buyers for parts of Unilever it does not want or would have to sell
to placate competition authorities. “

Vaart maken met bankhervormingen
Op de A2 en de A16 mogen we sinds kort ook 130 en dat maakt sommigen
enthousiast. Barnier pleit ook voor meer snelheid: “EU
warns US to speed up bank reform – The European Union’s top financial
regulator has warned the Obama administration that it must speed up and
toughen its new banking rules in order to prevent American banks from having
unfair advantages over their European counterparts. In a letter sent last
week to US Treasury secretary Tim Geithner, Michel Barnier, the European
commissioner in charge of financial markets, argued that Brussels was ahead
of the US in several areas – including capital requirements for banks and
limits on bonuses for financial executives. Mr Barnier urged the US to match
European efforts. “The level playing field must be a reality, not an empty
slogan,” he wrote in the May 27 letter, which was obtained by the Financial
Times. The letter, written ahead of Mr Barnier’s visit to Washington on
Wednesday, comes amid heightened transatlantic friction over the course of
regulation in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.” Ik
hoop dat Barnier hier geen last mee krijgt. Hij is namelijk wel erg eerlijk:
“Mr Barnier wrote he believes the US approach “leaves too much latitude for
financial institutions” and allows them to “circumvent globally-agreed
principles”.”

Recessie in Denemarken
De Denen. Hadden ook wat problemen met hun banken. Google maar op
“Amagerbanken” En gisteren bleken onze lego-vrinden ook op het macro-vlak
wat teleurstellingen te moeten verwerken: “Denmark
dips back into recession, joins EU laggards — Denmark unexpectedly slid
back into recession in the first quarter, casting the Nordic nation firmly
into the camp of Europe’s economic laggards as consumers and the government
cut back on spending. GDP shrank 0.5 percent compared with the fourth
quarter of 2010, its second straight quarterly contraction, Statistics
Denmark said — just a day after the government raised its growth forecast
for this year and two weeks after the independent Economic Council of "wise
men" did the same. The central bank brushed off the decline as a temporary
blip. Economists, who said the government’s prediction of 1.9 percent now
looked optimistic, had expected 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter growth,
according to the median estimate in a Reuters survey. The slump contrasts
starkly with strong growth rates elsewhere in the Nordic region and puts
Denmark on a par with bailout-dependent Portugal and Greece.” Stagnerende
huizenmarkt, problemen met banken – wat een mazzel dat ze nog geen last
hebben van het ‘Austerity virus’, alhoewel… Grote voordeel voor de Denen is
dat als het geen blipje blijkt te zijn, ze nog een eigen munt hebben die ze
kunnen laten devalueren.

Huizen en banken
Een prima combi. In good times is leverage een machtige vriend, maar als het
even tegenvalt in huizenland dan werkt die hefboom even de verkeerde kant
op. De (macro-)short waar ik hier al eerder over heb geschreven wordt
opgepikt op de wires. Vandaag op Bloomberg: “Banks
a ‘Sell’ as Australia Home Loans Tumble: Chart of the Day – The weakest
Australian demand for mortgages in at least 34 years means investors should
consider selling shares of the nation’s banks as profit growth stalls,
according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The CHART OF THE DAY shows mortgage credit
rose 6.4 percent in the 12 months through April 30, the smallest gain since
the Reserve Bank of Australia began collecting the figures in 1977. The
chart also shows the nation’s six-member S&P/ASX 200 Banks Index has
stagnated this year, as gross operating profits shrank at financial
institutions. “There’s definitely a tail risk that you’ll see the housing
market absolutely collapse,” Armina Soemino, an equity analyst at JPMorgan
in Sydney, said in an interview. JPMorgan reduced Australia’s banks last
week to “underweight” from “overweight” as the housing risk undermines their
traditional status as a “haven” for investors.”

Jacob Jurg is verbonden aan AFS en
verantwoordelijk voor nieuws en research.

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